Johns Hopkins University Whiting School of Engineering

Seth Guikema

Assistant Professor
Geography and Environmental Engineering
Secondary Appointment: Civil Engineering, Earth & Planetary Science (primary)

Ames 205 (office)
410-516-6042 (primary) (primary)
ResearcherID webpage >>


Ph.D. 2003, Stanford University
M.S. 1999, Stanford University
M.Eng. by Thesis 1998, University of Canterbury
B.S. 1994, Cornell University


2008: Innovative Decisions, Inc.; Senior Decision Analyst [consulting]
2008: Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
2008-2014: Professor II (adjunct), Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway.
2005-2007: Assistant Professor, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
2003-2005: Postdoctoral Associate, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Research Areas

Data analytics and data mining.
Probabilistic risk analysis
Performance and reliability of large-scale infrastructure systems in response to natural and human-induced hazards
Parametric and non-parametric count data regression
Modeling large-scale, interdependent infrastructure networks
Forecasting the impacts of hurricanes on infrastructure systems.
Environmental life-cycle assessment methods
environmental impacts of large-scale infrastructure systems
Bayesian probability modeling

Journal Articles

Rothschild, C., Mclay, L., Guikema, S. (2012). Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A Level‐k Approach. Risk Analysis.
Francis, R.A., Geedipally, S.R., Guikema, S.D., Dhavala, S.S., Lord, D., Larocca, S. (2012). Characterizing the Performance of the Conway‐Maxwell Poisson Generalized Linear Model. Risk Analysis.
Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.M. (2011). Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
Aven, T., Guikema, S. (2011). Whose uncertainty assessments (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts' or the experts'?. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 96(10). 1257-1262.
DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
Nateghi, R., Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.D. (2011). Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes. Risk Analysis.

Conference Proceedings

Nateghi, R., Guikema, S.D. "A Comparison of Top‐Down Statistical Models with Bottom‐Up Methods for Power System Reliability Estimation in High Wind Events".
Larocca, S., Guikema, S. "A Survey of Network Theoretic Approaches for Risk Analysis of Complex Infrastructure Systems".
Guikema, S., Han, S.R., Quiring, S. "Estimating Power Outages during Hurricanes Using Semi-Parametric Statistical Methods".
Bagchi, A., Sprintson, A., Guikema, S., Bristow, E., Brumbelow, K. "Modeling performance of interdependent power and water networks during urban fire events", pp.1637-1644.
Yu, O., Guikema, S., Bickel, J.E., Briaud, J.L., Burnett, D. "Systems Approach and Quantitative Decision Tools for Technology Selection in Environmentally Friendly Drilling".
DOI » 10.1080/10286608.2010.543280  View record in Web of Science SM

Awards & Honors

2012: Best Paper Award, Risk Analysis journal for "Modeling Intelligent Adversaries for Terrorism Risk Assessment: Some Necessary Conditions for Adversary Models" (1 of 5 best papers selected)
2012: Best Paper award, Risk Analysis journal for "Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A level-k approach" with Rothschild and McLay. (1 of 5 best papers)
2010: Chauncy Starr Award from the International Society for Risk Analysis: "awarded to any member age 40 years or younger for outstanding achievement in ... risk analysis and exceptional promise for continued contributions to risk analysis"
2002: 2002 Best Paper award from the INFORMS Military Applications Section and the Military Operations Research Society for:Paté-Cornell, M.E. and S.D. Guikema. 2002. “Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Prior
2001: Technical paper winner, Economics track, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Space 2001 Conference
1999: 1999 Best Paper in Environmental Conservation for: Guikema, S.D. and M. Milke. 1999. “Quantitative Decision Tools for Conservation Program Planning: Practice, Theory, and Potential.” Environmental Conservation, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 179-189.
1998: Best paper in the Quality and Manufacturing Technology category at the 5th Annual New Zealand Engineering and Technology Postgraduate Conference (1998)
2001 - 2003: Department of Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship (2001-2003)
2000 - 2001: Centennial Teaching Assistant, School of Engineering, Stanford University, 2000-2001
1999 - 2000: Teaching Assistant of the Year, Department of Industrial Engineering & Engineering Management, Stanford University, 1999-2000
1995 - 1999: U.S. Department of Energy Marilyn Lloyd Fellowship
1998 - 1998: Fulbright Fellowship (1998)


Hurricanes, Power Systems, and Climate Change, New York Area Energy Economists, January 24, 2013
Hurricanes, Power Systems, and Climate Change, Rice University Department of Civil Engineering, January 11, 2012
Intergenerational Risk Management Issues, Foundations of Risk Analysis Workshop, Salo, Italy, January 8, 2012
Infrastructure Modeling for Environmental and Disaster Assessment and Management, Nanjing University School of the Environment, January 6, 2012
Hurricanes, Climate Change, and Power Systems Risk, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Seminar, Johns Hopkins University, October 14, 2011
Bad Things Happen to Good Power Systems: Models and Experiences in Forecasting Hurricane Power Outages, M. Gordan Wolman Seminar, Department of Geography & Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University., October 1, 2011
Plenary Talk: Hurricanes, Power Systems, and Climate Change, U.S. Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Systems Meeting, Washington, D.C., September 1, 2011
Complex Systems Modeling and Applications, GIAI Conference, Johns Hopkins University, April 1, 2011
Methods for Natural Hazard Infrastructure Risk Assessment, IBM Watson Research Center, Invited Talk, November 15, 2010
Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense, Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science Workshop on Game Theory For Homeland Security. (Invited Talk), September 15, 2010
Predicting Power Outages Due to Hurricanes, Johns Hopkins University Alumni Association presentation in New York city, December 18, 2009
Predicting Power Outages Due to Hurricanes, Department of Homeland Security National Communications System Senior Leadership Briefing, December 8, 2009
Risk Analysis for Interdependent Infrastructure Systems, Department of Fire Science and System Safety, Lund University, Sweden (invited departmental seminar), August 19, 2009
Thoughts on the ALARP Principle, Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management, and Planning, University of Stavanger (Norway), August 14, 2009
Using Statistics to Understand Complex Environment, Infrastructure, Human Interactions During Disasters, Biostatistics seminar series, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health (invited talk), April 15, 2009
Risk, Trees, and Electric Power Systems, International Society of Arborists, Tree Risk Assessment Conference, Charlotte, NC. (Plenary Talk), February 5, 2009
Modeling Intelligent Threats, Workshop on Vulnerability Assessment of Critical Infrastructure with Case Studies on Power Transmission Networks and Dams, University of Wisconsin, Madison. (Plenary Talk), January 7, 2009
Statistical Assessment of the Influence of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hurricane Hazards, Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University (Departmental Seminar), November 18, 2008
Modeling Infrastructure Network Risk Using Statistical Models . Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University. 2007-05-00. (Invited), April 30, 2007
Probabilistic Risk and Decision Modeling for Complex Energy Systems . Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College. 2007-05-00. (Invited), April 30, 2007
Modeling Count Data for Environmental Decision-Making . Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University. 2007-04-00., March 31, 2007
Modeling Count Data for Environmental Decision-Making . Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University. 2007-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2007
Modeling Count Data for Infrastructure Management . Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Maryland. 2007-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2007
Risk Analysis in the DHS Era: Game Theory, Bayesian Probability, and Setting Priorities . Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University. 2006-09-00. (Invited), August 31, 2006
Probabilistic Methods for Assessing and Managing Infrastructure Reliability . Zachry Department of Civil Engineering. 2005-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2005
Probability Modeling of Count Data for Reliability Analysis Department of Mathematics, U.S. Naval Academy. . 2005-01-00. (Invited), December 31, 2004
Risk Analysis for Complex Infrastructure Systems: Bayesian Methods and Terrorist Threat Modeling . Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley. 2004-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2004
Optimal Resource Allocation in a Design Team with Asymmetric Information . Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University. 2003-04-00. (Invited), March 31, 2003
Optimal Resource Allocation in a Design Team with Asymmetric Information Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario. . 2003-04-00. (Invited), March 31, 2003
Decision and Risk Analysis for Resource Allocation . Saïd School of Business, Oxford University. 2002-12-00. (Invited), November 30, 2002
Preventing Disaster by Design: Resource Allocation in the Design Phase . Massachusetts Institue of Technology, Department of Aerospace Engineering and the Engineering Systems Division. 2002-04-00. (Invited), March 31, 2002


2011: Whiting School of Engineering Undergraduate Education Visioning Committee Member
2010: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering PhD fellowship committee
: Faculty Search Committee, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, August 2006-April 2007
: Program Committee Member, Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Advanced Academic Programs, Post-Baccalaureate Certificate in Geographic Information Systems, 2008-present
: Masters of Engineering Management Program Departmental Advisor for Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University (2008-present)
2011: Member of the Council, International Society for Risk Analysis
2011: Council Member, INFORMS Decision Analysis Society
2011: Membership Committee, IFORMS Decision Analysis Society
2010 - 2012: Faculty committee member, Sustainable Hopkins Infrastructure Program
2010 - 2010: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering Senior Administrator Search Committee
2008 - 2010: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, M.S. reevaluation ad-hoc committee, 2008.
2010: Newcomers Committee, Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), 2008-present.
2006 - 2007: Chair, Engineering & Infrastructure Specialty Group, Society for Risk Analysis